Published in 2025 in Advances in Meteorology (Volume 2025, Article ID 5571487), this open-access study looks at how climate extremes in Ethiopia may change by the end of the century. The authors used CMIP6 climate model projections under a medium (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenario. They measured extremes with the World Meteorological Organization’s climate indices, at the national level and across regions. Compared with 1991–2010, average annual rainfall is projected to rise by about 18% under the medium scenario and 41% under the high scenario. Most of the increase falls in the main June–September rainy season and in the already wet southwestern highlands, while the dry lowlands gain little. Maximum and minimum temperatures could rise by up to 3.6°C and 4.6°C respectively. Drought is generally projected to become less common. Extreme rainfall and flood risk grow, especially in central, western and southwestern Ethiopia.
The paper was produced as a collaborative effort of researchers in South Africa and Ethiopia with Amsalework A. Ejigu, from the IDEMS team, contributing to data management and analysis. It’s the second paper this team has published in 2025 on climate projections for the region. It follows their comparison of drought trends in Ethiopia and South Africa in Climate Dynamics. The full paper is freely available on the Wiley Online Library (DOI: 10.1155/adme/5571487).
The research brings together partners in three countries: the University of the Free State, the Central University of Technology, Free State (South Africa), the University of Reading (UK) and Wolaita Sodo University (Ethiopia). The study received no external funding. It builds on the openly available NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and the NASA Ames Research Center and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation, together with CMIP6 data coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme. The authors call for targeted adaptation in Ethiopia, including better water management, stronger early warning systems and sustainable land-use planning, to build resilience in the communities most exposed to floods and droughts.