This study compares how climate change is expected to reshape rainfall, temperature and drought in Ethiopia and South Africa. The authors used high-resolution projections from six CMIP6 climate models (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenario. They looked at each country as a whole and at five climate zones within each country. The two countries are projected to go in opposite directions. In Ethiopia, annual rainfall rises by 1.2–2.5 mm per year, and droughts become generally less frequent and less severe, although flood risk grows and some northern and eastern areas still see more drought later in the century. In South Africa, rainfall falls by 0.25–0.32 mm per year, and droughts become more frequent and severe, especially under high emission scenarios. Both countries face rising temperatures and evaporative demand.
Amsalework A. Ejigu, from the IDEMS team, contributed to data management and analysis, analysing rainfall and temperature data with Python and R. The full paper is freely available on the Springer website (DOI: 10.1007/s00382-025-07588-w).
This research brings together partners across three countries: the University of the Free State, the Central University of Technology, Free State (South Africa), the University of Reading (UK) and Wolaita Sodo University (Ethiopia). The University of the Free State funded open access to the paper. The study draws on the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and the NASA Ames Research Center and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation, together with CMIP6 data coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme. The authors recommend that Ethiopia strengthen flood management and soil conservation, while South Africa focuses on water conservation. Both countries should build climate projections into their planning, improve early warning systems and develop public–private partnerships for adaptation. The results in the paper underscores the importance of climate resilient forward thinking, which is one of IDEMS’s core strategic efforts.